{"id":302182,"date":"2023-12-12T18:40:38","date_gmt":"2023-12-12T18:40:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportstons.com\/?p=302182"},"modified":"2023-12-12T18:40:38","modified_gmt":"2023-12-12T18:40:38","slug":"the-first-read-confidence-rankings-for-eight-division-leaders-entering-final-quarter-of-2023-nfl-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportstons.com\/nfl\/the-first-read-confidence-rankings-for-eight-division-leaders-entering-final-quarter-of-2023-nfl-season\/","title":{"rendered":"The First Read: Confidence rankings for eight division leaders entering final quarter of 2023 NFL season"},"content":{"rendered":"
In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season, including:<\/em><\/p>\n But first, a confidence ranking of the eight division leaders (from least to most) with just four weeks to go …<\/em><\/p>\n We knew Week 14 was going to be a blast. There were simply too many great games — with so much potential impact on the postseason — to think we’d be underwhelmed with the action. December always has been the time of year when conjecture vanishes from all conversations about the NFL. This is the time when we truly start learning who’s for real, and that’s what the league provided this weekend.<\/p>\n The most important takeaway from Week 14 was that almost every division race remains open. Sure, there are some teams that have a more comfortable lead than others, but that doesn’t mean much right now. There are plenty of marquee matchups coming in the next few weeks. A team that once seemed a given to host a home playoff game could easily land on the road to a wildcard spot with one or two key mistakes.<\/p>\n This week’s edition of The First Read will focus on that reality. It’s all about the division leaders in this installment, so here’s our rankings of the squads who sit in the best positions to take a crown and what challenges currently stand in their way \u2026<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Falcons split with the Buccaneers this season, but Tampa Bay just left Atlanta with a 29-25 win. Both teams are 6-7, so every week is critical from here on out. New Orleans, also 6-7, can’t be ruled out either, though they’ve already lost head-to-head matchups with both Tampa and Atlanta. They’ll have an opportunity to get even, though, with games against both to close out the campaign.<\/p>\n This one is big just because the Bucs need to reach .500. They haven\u2019t been in that position since Oct. 22 — when, ironically, they lost to Atlanta to fall to 3-3 — and it surely would give them a major confidence boost coming down the stretch. <\/p>\n Like every other team in the NFC South, you don\u2019t know what you\u2019re going to get from week to week with this bunch. The Buccaneers have three wins in their last nine games — after opening the season 3-1 — and they\u2019re likely heading for a first-round exit in the playoffs. The biggest reason to believe in them is their recent history. They\u2019ve won the division two years in a row, and there are still a number of players left from the squad that won the Super Bowl in 2020. It also doesn\u2019t hurt that the NFC South is so weak. Somebody<\/em> has to win it, and the Bucs currently have the best shot.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Cowboys\u2019 33-13 win over the Eagles proved that there is little separating these teams at this stage. Dallas faces a tougher road to close out the season (with Buffalo, Miami and Detroit in that mix) but they\u2019re playing their best football at the right time. The bad news is the Eagles take the division if they win out, and their final four games go: at Seahawks, vs. Giants, vs. Cardinals, at Giants (combined record of 17-33 entering Monday night).<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Cowboys can\u2019t worry about the difficulty of their remaining schedule. They can only play the games one at a time, and that journey starts with a road trip to face a Bills team that is already in playoff mode. Dallas has ripped off five straight wins. Six straight would sound a hell of a lot better.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n It\u2019s been a problem all season, but the Cowboys finally earned that defining victory against Philadelphia on Sunday. They won\u2019t get another shot at San Francisco unless they meet in the postseason, but it\u2019s encouraging to know Dallas can beat up on contenders, as well. It\u2019s one thing to blast lesser teams like the Commanders, Panthers and Giants. Taking out a squad like Philadelphia — which had the league\u2019s top record coming in to the weekend — was a statement the Cowboys needed to make.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n You actually could put Indianapolis in the same conversation since both the Texans and Colts are 7-6. The difference is that Houston has a budding star in quarterback C.J. Stroud. If he stays healthy — and he left Sunday\u2019s loss to the Jets with a concussion — the Texans have a shot at running down the Jaguars.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Jaguars desperately need a win. They gave up 31 points in a loss to Cleveland on Sunday and another 34 to Cincinnati a week before that. This team was once in contention for the top seed in the AFC. It now needs to fight to stay in the postseason picture altogether. The Ravens are the best opponent left on their schedule but more importantly, they\u2019re the next one Jacksonville will see.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Jacksonville\u2019s season took a huge hit when Lawrence sustained that injury in a Monday night loss to Cincinnati a week ago. The Jaguars couldn\u2019t overcome his absence in that game and Lawrence clearly wasn\u2019t himself in a defeat at Cleveland this past weekend. The Jaguars rallied in the second half of that contest but they fell into a 14-point hole largely because Lawrence was turning the ball over (he finished with three interceptions). Jacksonville is fortunate to have a soft schedule left (with Baltimore being the only winning team they\u2019ll see). That advantage won\u2019t matter so much if Lawrence can\u2019t play at a level they\u2019re accustomed to seeing.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Don\u2019t look now but the Broncos are only one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West. Denver might not have enough juice to keep Kansas City from winning its eighth straight division title but this is the closest any AFC West team has gotten to the Chiefs at this juncture since Patrick Mahomes was in his first season as a starter.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n This game felt like a layup for Kansas City when the Bengals lost quarterback Joe Burrow to a season-ending injury. Today, it feels like a game that will be crucial to Cincinnati\u2019s playoff hopes and Kansas City\u2019s chances of having any shot at the AFC\u2019s first-round bye. Lose this one and the Chiefs are most definitely looking at their first road playoff game in the Patrick Mahomes era.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n It\u2019s too easy to complain about Kansas City\u2019s offensive issues these days. Their wide receivers are a hot mess and that\u2019s not going to change anytime soon. The problem is the Chiefs\u2019 defense doesn\u2019t look so elite any more. The Bills jumped out to a 14-0 lead on Sunday and eventually won by a score of 20-17. The Packers led 14-3 in the first half of their win over Kansas City and the Raiders jumped out to a 14-0 lead before the Chiefs rallied in the second half for a victory. You want to know the easiest way to blow a lead in a division race (and ultimately go home early in the playoffs)? Keep falling behind by double-digits. The Chiefs are too flawed offensively to continue having those types of problems at the start of games.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Vikings are two games behind the Lions and they\u2019ll play each other in two of the last three weeks of the season. Even with all of Minnesota\u2019s quarterback problems, this team has a chance to hurt the Lions in head-to-head play. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Lions are good enough to beat the Vikings once, if not twice, in the coming weeks. The real question is whether Detroit can go on a playoff run once the postseason begins. The past month has challenged that notion, as Detroit has lost to Green Bay and Chicago (and probably should\u2019ve lost a second game to the Bears). The Lions need to find that mojo that worked so well for them earlier this year. A win over a surging championship contender like Dallas would help that cause greatly.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Lions have their share of problems with quarterback Jared Goff but the defense has been an issue lately as well. Justin Fields thrived against the Lions in Sunday\u2019s loss and Packers quarterback Jordan Love did the same thing when Green Bay beat Detroit on Thanksgiving. Even the offensively-challenged New Orleans Saints found a way to score 28 points when the Lions beat them two weeks ago. Detroit has been searching for an effective pass rush all season. They\u2019re suddenly looking for a defense that can be more reliable in all aspects of the game.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Bills gave the Dolphins their first loss of the season and the score was 48-20. Miami will see them again in Buffalo in the season finale, after the Dolphins face Dallas and Baltimore in consecutive weeks. The Bills trail Miami by two games right now but it\u2019s not hard to imagine that Week 18 matchup could decide the AFC East title.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n You literally could pick any of the last three games on the Dolphins\u2019 schedule, which includes Dallas and Buffalo. We\u2019ll go with the Ravens because, as stated earlier, these are the two best teams in the AFC at the moment and they\u2019re likely to be in that position on New Year\u2019s Eve.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n It\u2019s the same old story with this team. It must find a way to beat the good teams that show up on the schedule. The Dolphins were 8-3 last year and dropped five straight games before a season-ending victory earned them a playoff spot. They have to display more resilience this year, especially because they tend to play their worst against the best teams. The good news is that the defense is trending in the right direction and they\u2019ve kept quarterback Tua Tagovailoa healthy all year. Those things must continue for this team to start winning big games.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Browns are relying on that stout defense and the savvy of recently signed quarterback Joe Flacco, a former Raven, to keep their playoff hopes alive. They\u2019re two games behind Baltimore but they\u2019ll need plenty of help to catch the Ravens for the AFC North crown.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n This contest might very well decide the recipient of the first-round bye in the AFC playoffs. The Ravens face their share of tough opponents — including upcoming road trips to Jacksonville and San Francisco — but a win over Miami could provide Baltimore with a heck of an advantage in that race for the top postseason spot in the conference.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Ravens have a well-documented history of falling apart in the fourth quarter of games over the last two seasons. They nearly endured another such setback in Sunday\u2019s 37-31 overtime win over the Rams. That same defense that has been elite all season couldn\u2019t find a way to slow down the Rams offense late in regulation. Baltimore also gave up big days to quarterback Matthew Stafford (294 passing yards, three touchdowns), running back Kyren Williams (114 rushing yards) and wide receiver Cooper Kupp (eight catches for 115 yards and a touchdown). San Francisco and Miami are capable of doing even more damage when they see Baltimore later this month.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n To be honest, the Rams aren\u2019t that much of a threat. San Francisco has a four-game lead in the division and only one winning team left on the schedule. This is a wrap. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n This is critical because the 49ers are very much in play for the top seed in the NFC. The Ravens are fighting for the same advantage in the AFC so this will be a heavyweight matchup.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The only real concern the 49ers have is the health of their defense. They had some key starters banged up in Sunday\u2019s win over Seattle (including linebacker Dre Greenlaw and cornerback Charvarius Ward) and defensive tackle Arik Armstead didn\u2019t even suit up. Aside from that, this team is clicking at exactly the right time. The 49ers have won five straight games and they\u2019ve all been double-digit victories. There isn\u2019t a hotter team in the league.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The 49ers wide receiver has been on fire. Two of his three 100-yard games this season have come in the past two weeks and he\u2019s been a big-play machine in those contests. Samuel erupted for 149 yards on seven catches and scored twice (on a 54-yard catch and a 1-yard run) in Sunday\u2019s 28-16 win over Seattle. He also touched the ball seven times (four receptions and three rushing attempts) in a 42-19 blowout of Philadelphia in Week 13, scoring three touchdowns. Samuel hasn\u2019t looked this dominant since he was terrorizing opponents as a receiver and running back in 2021. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Bengals were supposed to be done by this stage with Browning filling in for Joe Burrow. Instead, they\u2019re starting to look like a serious playoff contender again with this backup leading the charge. Browning threw for 275 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in Sunday\u2019s win over Indianapolis and he\u2019s completed 82 percent of his passes over his team\u2019s last two victories. Bengals head coach Zac Taylor said he had plenty of confidence in Browning when Burrow went down. Now we know why. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n It\u2019s hard to imagine a defensive coordinator in recent memory who\u2019s had a crazier year than what Joseph has experienced in Denver. His defense couldn\u2019t stop anybody in the first four weeks of the season and allowed 70 points to the Miami Dolphins. That same unit is suddenly the foundation of all the good vibes around the Broncos. Denver has 18 takeaways over its last seven games. Only three teams have cracked the 20-point mark during that stretch and nobody has scored more than 22. This team is now one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West and the playoffs are a very real possibility.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Lions quarterback is scuffling through the toughest stretch of his time with that franchise. He\u2019s committed eight turnovers in his last four games, including two interceptions in Sunday\u2019s loss to Chicago. The Lions also have two losses in that span and there are suddenly a lot more questions about how serious they are as Super Bowl contenders. Goff was playing so well earlier this season that there were legitimate debates about him being an MVP candidate. The Lions\u2019 main concern today should be finding a way to make him consistent again. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Jacksonville has gone from being the best team that wasn\u2019t given enough love to creating serious doubts about whether they can make any noise in the postseason. Part of that is a result of Trevor Lawrence playing hurt. A bigger issue is the Jaguars’ defense, which has been roasted by backup quarterbacks in consecutive weeks. Cleveland\u2019s Joe Flacco got them for 311 yards and three touchdowns in a loss on Sunday and that was one week after Cincinnati\u2019s Jake Browning lit them up for 354 yards in another defeat. All told, Jacksonville has surrendered 65 points over those two games. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n There should be no more lingering questions about why the New York Giants traded Toney, a first-round pick in the 2021 draft, midway through last season. That\u2019s how bad he\u2019s been for the Chiefs this year. His latest mistake involved lining up offside in what would\u2019ve been the game-winning touchdown that he scored after receiving a lateral from Travis Kelce late in Kansas City\u2019s 20-17 loss to Buffalo. Combine that with his lack of production (162 receiving yards on the season<\/em>) and propensity for drops and it\u2019s clear that his future in Kansas City isn\u2019t bright. Aside from a huge punt return in last year\u2019s Super Bowl win, Toney has been a major disappointment.<\/p>\n The Jets’ offense shows a pulse in upset win over the Texans.<\/strong> Nobody saw this type of game coming from New York in its 30-6 win. The Jets had only scored 45 points in their last five games, all of which ended in defeat. But there was quarterback Zach Wilson — who was benched for two weeks — producing the best game of his career (27-36, 301 yards and two touchdowns). We knew the Jets had enough defense to create problems for Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud. For one game they had enough offense to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Ravens are fighting for the top seed in the AFC playoffs. The Jaguars are hoping just to start winning again. They\u2019ve lost two straight games since they had the lead in the race for that coveted first-round bye and quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing with that painful high ankle sprain. Two weeks ago, this game was pivotal to deciding conference supremacy heading into the postseason. Now the Ravens have the most to gain while the Jaguars must prove they can return to championship contention form.<\/p>\n A simple ranking of the top five candidates, which will be updated weekly, depending on performance. Here is how it stands heading into Week 13 (with Caesars Sportsbook odds as of 9 a.m. ET on Monday, Dec. 11):<\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n My slowly evolving Super Bowl LVIII pick, which also will be updated each week, depending on performances: 49ers over Ravens.<\/strong><\/p>\n Previous picks …<\/p>\n Back to top<\/p>\n\n
Related Links <\/span> <\/h2>\n
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Top threat in the division: <\/strong>Atlanta Falcons (6-7)<\/h4>\n
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Most important game remaining: <\/strong>at Green Bay Packers (Week 15)<\/h4>\n
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Biggest red flag: <\/strong>Inconsistency.<\/h4>\n
Biggest threat in the division: <\/strong>Philadelphia Eagles (10-3)<\/h4>\n
Most important game remaining: <\/strong>at Buffalo Bills (Week 15)<\/h4>\n
Biggest red flag: <\/strong>Limited wins over good teams.<\/h4>\n
Top threat in the division:<\/strong> Houston Texans (7-6)<\/h4>\n
Most important game remaining:<\/strong> vs. Baltimore Ravens (Week 15)<\/h4>\n
Biggest red flag: <\/strong>Trevor Lawrence\u2019s high ankle sprain.<\/h4>\n
Top threat in the division:<\/strong> Denver Broncos (7-6)<\/h4>\n
Most important game remaining:<\/strong> vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Week 17)<\/h4>\n
Biggest red flag: <\/strong>Defense coming back to earth.<\/h4>\n
Top threat in the division:<\/strong> Minnesota Vikings (7-6)<\/h4>\n
Most important game remaining: <\/strong>at Dallas Cowboys (Week 17)<\/h4>\n
Biggest red flag: <\/strong>Defense.<\/h4>\n
Top threat in the division: <\/strong>Buffalo Bills (7-6)<\/h4>\n
Most important game remaining: <\/strong>at Baltimore Ravens (Week 17)<\/h4>\n
Biggest red flag:<\/strong> Not winning big games.<\/h4>\n
Top threat in the division: <\/strong>Cleveland Browns (8-5)<\/h4>\n
Most important game remaining: <\/strong>vs. Miami Dolphins (Week 17)<\/h4>\n
Biggest red flag: <\/strong>Late-game defensive letdowns.<\/h4>\n
Top threat in the division: <\/strong>Los Angeles Rams (6-7)<\/h4>\n
Most important game remaining: <\/strong>vs. Baltimore Ravens (Week 16)<\/h4>\n
Biggest red flag: <\/strong>Staying healthy. <\/h4>\n
THREE UP<\/h2>\n
THREE DOWN<\/h2>\n
SUNDAY’S BIGGEST SURPRISE<\/h2>\n
THREE GAMES TO REVISIT ON NFL+<\/h2>\n
MOST INTRIGUING GAME OF WEEK 15<\/h2>\n
MVP WATCH<\/h2>\n
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EXTRA POINT<\/h2>\n
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