Andy Farrell needs to plot careful path through World Cup pool stage

Andy Farrell needs to plot careful path through World Cup pool stage and get selections right as Ireland prepare for opening game against Romania

• Andy Farrell ready to lead his Ireland side into the World Cup this weekend 
• Ireland begin their campaign by taking on Romania in Bordeaux on Saturday 
• Farrell’s men the faces pool clashes with Tonga, South Africa and Scotland  
• Latest Rugby World Cup 2023 news, including fixtures, live scores and results

The World Cup has never been far from Andy Farrell’s thinking.

Ever since he succeeded Joe Schmidt following the ill-fated campaign of 2019, the Ireland head coach has always had one eye on France 2023.

Years of planning and big-picture projects – such as the midweek Maori games in New Zealand, the Emerging Ireland tour and getting Gary Keegan on board in the background – have all been geared towards the big event.

Farrell was riding shotgun for England’s debacle on home soil in 2015 and he had a frontrow seat four years later as Irelands’ World Cup chances unravelled months before the tournament in Japan loomed into focus.

He has heeded the lessons and, now, Farrell will look to put his own plan into place.

Owen Farrell has been preparing for this World Cup ever since succeeding Joe Schmidt 

The Ireland coach has a number of decisions to make over his selections for each game 

In terms of tactics, team culture, hindsight, input from his backroom team and quality and quantity of players, he will feel that this squad is a in a really good place.

The key for the Farrell and his management team is how they negotiate the pool stages. All things going well, Ireland will emerge from Pool B – either was winners or runners up in this five-team group.

Either way, they are facing a seismic quarter-final clash at Stade de France on the weekend of October 14/15.

It says a lot about the daunting challenge facing Farrell’s troops when the All Blacks – the team which demolished Ireland in a depressingly one-sided quarter-final meeting in Tokyo in the last World Cup – are seen as the lesser of two evils.

It will be either New Zealand – with Schmidt lurking in the background – or the tournament hosts on their home turf in the last eight.

Peaking for that game is paramount and Farrell must carefully manage his resources in the weeks ahead. He can’t flog his frontliners but wrapping them in cotton wool isn’t a viable option either.

And there are plenty of warnings from history on both fronts. Eddie O’Sullivan felt his best and brightest were chronically short of match fitness when they pitched up in France in 2007.

The then Ireland boss barely tweaked his starting line-up throughout the pool stages. Despite the compelling form of Alan Quinlan and Stephen Ferris – who were both tearing up trees in training apparently – O’Sullivan stuck to the tried and trusted. Suffice to say, it didn’t go too well.

Rotating too much disrupts a team’s rhythm as well, however.

How Farrell negotiates the next few weeks is going to be fascinating, beginning with Saturday’s low-key opener in Bordeaux.

September 9: Romania, Stade de Bordeaux

Ireland, for their all their grim history at this tournament, have a pretty decent record when it comes to their opening pool game. The national team have own seven of their nine opening matches at the World Cup.

A 13-6 loss to Wales in 1987 and a 43-19 hammering at the hands of a Jonah Lomu-inspired New Zealand are the only blots on the copybook.

Then again, Ireland have faced fairly middling opposition on the first weekend of rugby’s showpiece event, a list which includes Zimbabwe, the United States (twice), Romania, Namibia and Canada.

The Romanians provide the opposition again this weekend and the Oaks should provide little stress for the world’s No1 team.

Johnny Sexton could return to the Ireland team for their opening game against Romania 

A clash with the pool minnows – who are currently ranked 18 places below Ireland in the global pecking order – would seemingly be the perfect time to give the fringe players a run.

Farrell is likely to pick a very strong side, however. Expect a team close to the one which cruised past England in Dublin three weeks ago.

All the big names are likely to be on board. They are highly liked to be joined by Johnny Sexton.

The Ireland captain has not been seen on a rugby pitch since the Grand Slam decider against England in March. Injury and suspension has kept the 38-year-old skipper out of action for the best part of six months.

Sexton is chronically short of game-time and a hit-out against Romania on Week One is phase one of the Faz’s Masterplan. Because Sexton is highly unlikely to feature against the next opponents on the schedule…

September 16: Tonga, Stade de Beaujoire

Ireland’s hard-fought meeting with Samoa in Bayonne felt like a dry-run for this pool meeting in Nantes.

Farrell sent out a second-string to take on the Pacific Islanders and they were pushed all the way in the Stade Jean Dauger, the Six Nations sneaking home with a four-point win after a thrilling encounter in Bayonne.

The same personnel are set to pitch up against the Tongans. The crunch clash with South Africa is only seven days after this game and Farrell may opt to keep the likes of Sexton, Tadhg Furlong, James Ryan, Garry Ringrose and Hugo Keenan out of harm’s way.

Ireland’s clash with Samoa was a dry-run for their pool meeting with Tonga at the World Cup 

Then again, the performance of Samoa will have given Farrell plenty to ponder. Tonga are laced with potent customers such as Charles Piutau, Pita Akhi and Vaea Fifita.

He will trust a weakened side to get the job done but – mindful of the calming influence which Ryan and Peter O’Mahony brought from the bench when they were introduced from the bench against Samoa – he may stack his replacements with experience in case things go awry.

All things going according to plan, Ireland will be unbeaten and primed for the big one in Paris.

September 23: South Africa, Stade de France

The world champions in Saint Denis with a prime-time kick-off on Saturday night. It doesn’t get any bigger than this. The French and Kiwi camps will be watching with interests.

Going full bore against a global heavyweight has not fared so well in the past.

Schmidt’s Ireland made a big statement against France in the pool stages of the 2015 edition. That 24-9 win at a heaving Millennium Stadium came at quite the cost, however.

O’Mahony, Paul O’Connell and Sexton were ruled out of the quarter-final with serious injuries while Sean O’Brien copped a suspension.

The biggest test for Ireland will come against world champions South Africa in Saint Denis 

Beating the Springboks would be a huge statement of intent from Ireland. If they lose a clutch of key player to injuries before the knockout stages, then will it have been justified? These are scenarios which have been swirling around in Farrell’s head for quite some time.

Sending out a weakened team just doesn’t fit into the mentality of the coach or this group of players. They will all want to face down the Boks, regardless of quarter-final permutations or risk of injury.

The two-week break between this game and the final pool meeting with the Scots will surely allow Farrell to field his strongest possible side to face South Africa.

October 7: Scotland, Stade de France

Another pivotal pool game.

It could be a must-win or a free-hit. Who knows? Gregor Townsend’s side might even be front runners in Pool B if they manage to turn over the Boks in Marseille this weekend.

It feels like a lot is going to be on the line against their Six Nations rivals. There will be little room for manoeuvre when it comes to squad selection at this point, particularly against a team with so many dangerous broken-field runners.

All the big names will be pitching up again in Paris.

There will be a two-week break before Ireland play their final pool meeting against Scotland 

Securing their place in the quarter-final stage will be paramount. Then, the real business will begin as Ireland look to end 36 years of hurt and finally win a World Cup knockout game.

The path has never looked has perilous and you wonder how much damage will be inflicted along the way.

A lot food for thought for Farrell, indeed.

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