Rugby World Cup permutations as Ireland, Scotland and South Africa may crash out

Rugby World Cup 2023: Ireland and Scotland face showdown in Lyon

The Rugby World Cup is set for a fascinating finale in the group stage with Ireland, Scotland and South Africa involved in a three-way tussle to clinch qualification for the knockout rounds. All three nations can still qualify for the quarter-finals heading into their last Pool B matches, but only two will go through to join England and Wales in the last eight.

As it stands going into Saturday’s fixtures, Ireland are in control of their own destiny having won all three of their matches in France so far. They face Scotland in a massive fixture to decide which of the nations will be heading into the next round. However, South Africa have complicated the scenario by sitting at the top of the group – albeit having played one game more.

Because Tonga and Romania cannot qualify for the quarter-finals – both countries are on zero points with one game left to play against each other – it is down to Ireland, Scotland and South Africa to decide their fate.

With two quarter-final slots remaining, Express Sport runs the rule over all of the mathematical possibilities that could occur following Saturday night’s clash at the Stade de France.

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For Scotland to qualify

Victory alone against Ireland is not enough for Scotland to finish above their rivals. They must also deny the Irish a bonus point to finish second on the head-to-head rule with South Africa topping the pool.

For Ireland to qualify

Ireland will guarantee top spot in Pool B if they secure two points from their match against Scotland.

For Ireland and South Africa to qualify

If Ireland get a bonus point and Scotland do not, Ireland will top the pool on the head-to-head rule from South Africa, knocking out Scotland in the process.

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For Scotland and Ireland to qualify

Scotland must win by 21 points or more to claim top spot ahead of South Africa, with the current point differences showing as South Africa +117, Ireland +122 and Scotland +97.

Ireland would then qualify as runners-up on the head-to-head rule, having beaten South Africa, sending the Springboks home from the tournament.

For South Africa and Scotland to qualify

If Scotland win and both teams get a bonus point, then they join South Africa on 15 points and points difference will be used to determine top spot in Pool B.

If Scotland win but by a lower margin, then South Africa will finish top on points difference and Scotland snatch second on the head-to-head rule.

South Africa would qualify in first ahead of Scotland if the Tartans secure a bonus-point win without Ireland getting anything from the game. The Springboks would finish top due to the head-to-head rule.

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