Magpies v Demons: Who will prevail in the battle of the bulls?

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The time for talk is just about over, as Melbourne and Collingwood prepare for what shapes as an enthralling qualifying final before a sold-out MCG.

We take a look at the key questions this contest throws up.

Mason Cox and Max Gawn in the King’s Birthday clash this year.Credit: Getty Images

Last time they met

Round 13: Melbourne 8.18 (66) d Collingwood 9.8 (62) at the MCG.

What’s the biggest lesson the Pies need to learn from the King’s Birthday defeat?

If the Magpies are to prevail, they cannot let Demons defenders Steven May, Jake Lever and Christian Salem have the same influence as they did in round 13. Too often, the Magpies wasted their midfield surges with poor kicks inside attacking 50. The Demons had 23 intercept marks, four taken by May, while Salem had nine intercept possessions. This trio is a major reason why the Demons boast the second-best defence, in terms of points conceded (72.2 points), in the league.

The top-of-the-table Magpies’ efforts were particularly disappointing, for they typically make wise decisions, and are ranked No.6 for scores for times inside 50.

They were, however, without the brilliant Jamie Elliott and key recruit Daniel McStay on that afternoon. Jeremy Howe, now playing as a swingman, will also ensure the Demons have more to think about.

Does the absence of Nick Daicos give the Demons the midfield edge?

Yes. The Demons are loaded with blue-chip talent. In ruckman Max Gawn, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, primed in what will be his fourth game back from injury, and Jack Viney, the latter having a career year, the Demons boast arguably the best frontline on-ball brigade in the business. This is where Nick Daicos’ creativity will be missed, for there are few better at weaving through traffic across half-back and through the centre. Jack Crisp will provide run and carry, Taylor Adams grunt, and Scott Pendlebury his typical poise, but it’s now up to the bull that is Jordan De Goey to leave his mark. De Goey, remember, was best on ground in the Pies’ opening two finals last year, against Geelong and Fremantle, and has had a superb season.

Men on a mission: Jamie Elliott and Jordan De Goey will be central to the Magpies’ hopes against Melbourne on Thursday night.Credit: Getty Images

How important is winning the ball at the coalface?

Huge. As the graphic shows, the Demons and Magpies are each ranked inside the top three for scores from turnovers differential, and inside the top four for scores from stoppages. Hitting a target will be pivotal to avoiding turnovers, an area the Magpies have generally been strong in, but the Demons have struggled, as shown by being bottom six for disposal efficiency differential percentage. That’s why the one-on-one contests at half-back will be pivotal in this clash. If the Magpies win these, they could run amok through the midfield. Both teams have bulls who flourish at stoppages, so defensive set-ups at ball-ins will also be pivotal. Petracca and De Goey loom as major threats.

How big a loss for the Demons is Jake Melksham?

A massive loss, according to Champion Data. Just when it appeared coach Simon Goodwin had finally settled on his forward mix, Melksham fell to a devastating ACL injury against Sydney in the final round of the home-and-away competition. Melksham was instrumental in wins over the Brisbane Lions, Richmond and Hawthorn, and since round 16 he has been No.1 for goals and marks inside 50 for the Demons. Of all teams, he had been the seventh-best target in this period. He will be tough to replace, with Tom McDonald set to fill the void. “He’s a really important player for us. He’s a leader and, he’s proven that he can play well in finals footy,” Goodwin said of McDonald.

On our way: Bayley Fritsch’s impact up forward will be even more important now Jake Melksham is injured.Credit: AFL Photos

In the Demons’ favour is that, despite boasting the sixth most potent attack, they do not have one player inside the top 25 for goals. They have relied on spreading the mix, with Bayley Fritsch and Kysaiah Pickett each with 34.

The return of a fully fit Darcy Moore from injury will give the Magpies confidence they can quell anyone.

How important is a win?

Very. That may seem an obvious answer, but a loss rules out the hope of having a preliminary final in Melbourne. Should the losing team rebound in a cut-throat semi-final, a preliminary final will await in either the hostile territory of Brisbane or Adelaide.

The Magpies rebounded after a qualifying loss to Geelong last year, but the Demons could start to have mental scarring, as they were dismissed in straight sets last year, sparking a deep rethink of their program.

Should there be any concussion issues, a week off also gives that player a chance to return for the preliminary final.

Tip: Melbourne by five points.

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