We’re on to Week 2! In the sports betting market Week 2 tends to be a fun time for contrarian bettors while most of the public is overreacting to one week’s worth of data. A lot of that can be applied to NFL DFS contests, as well. Obviously, not everything we saw in Week 1 was fluky, but there are situations that we can hope to take advantage of with some projected lower-owned picks who aren’t getting the respect they deserve on DraftKings or FanDuel (or overweight picks who are getting too much love).
As always, we’ll be using RotoGrinders’ Projected Ownership numbers as a reference. Let’s dive into Week 2!
WEEK 2 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 2 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback
High: Derek Carr, Raiders vs. Chiefs (8.6 percent pOWN on FanDuel, 9.3 percent on DraftKings). Projected to be the third highest-owned QB on DraftKings, Carr looks like a trap in Week 2. The Raiders got the season going in style by winning on Monday night as home underdogs, but it wasn’t because of a big statistical output from Carr. He played pretty well, but Oakland controlled the clock with an above average ground game courtesy of Josh Jacobs, and I think they know they aren’t going to win many games on the back of their aerial attack. I get the thought process that Carr will be throwing plenty against a high-octane Chiefs offense, but those situations don’t always lead to fruitful fantasy output, and at this type of expected ownership, I’ll lay off and hope the public jumps on board. He’s not expected to be quite as popular on FanDuel, but I’ll also be leaving him alone over there.
Low: Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers vs. Seahawks and Russell Wilson, Seahawks @ Steelers (Sub-5 percent pOWN on both FanDuel and DraftKings). I can see this one having some very real shootout potential despite it having a middling total on the NFL odds page. Roethlisberger and the Steelers looked absolutely abysmal on Sunday night in Foxboro, and while the sledding won’t get much easier against Seattle, at least Pittsburgh gets to duel on their home field where Big Ben has historically been much better. If Andy Dalton and the Bengals passing game can show holes in Seattle’s defense, so can the Steelers. On the other side, Wilson is in a fine spot, as his passing volume should rise in this spot and he carries some added upside with his legs, albeit more limited than it has in past seasons. This is a very stackable game and one that I think the masses will overlook.
Other notable QBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Josh Allen (@ Giants), Philip Rivers (@ Lions), Andy Dalton (vs. 49ers)
Other notable QBs that I think are being overvalued: Tom Brady (@ Dolphins)
WEEK 2 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Week 2 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Running Back
Josh Jacobs, Raiders vs. Chiefs (34.3-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 30.3 percent on DraftKings). He’s projected to be the most popular RB on FanDuel and DraftKings, which is pretty wild. Had Jacobs’ stat line not been as robust against Denver, his projected ownership would be far down the list. While he looked great on Monday night, this is not the same type of spot, and I think it’s a major overreaction to one game. Oakland was able to control the clock all night and never trailed, so they were able to rely on the ground game to mask what will be a very underwhelming passing attack. Kansas City’s offense is quite a bit different than statue-esque Joe Flacco and the Denver attack, and I don’t see Jacobs getting all that close to his workload from Week 1. The Raiders are currently listed as 7.5-point underdogs on PA online sports betting, which isn’t generally something we love to see when rostering RBs. I’ll be far underweight here and may just fade entirely.
Devin Singletary, Bills @ Giants (1.1-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 6.4 percent on DraftKings). Singletary is projected to be a shade over six-percent owned on DraftKings, but that figure falls to two percent on FanDuel. The Bills backfield is still in flux with ageless Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon factoring into the equation, but Singletary played 70 percent of the snaps and was involved in the passing game, making him somewhat immune to game flow. He saw about 18 percent of the team targets in Week 1, and outside of John Brown, there isn’t really anything in the Bills passing game that you can even remotely consider as “reliable.” I think Gore’s presence is going to help keep the ownership down here, and I’ll aim to be overweight against the Giants defense.
Other notable RBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Marlon Mack (@ Titans), Raheem Mostert (@ Bengals), Tarik Cohen (@ Broncos) (DK), Damien Williams (@ Raiders), LeSean McCoy (@ Raiders)
Other notable RBs that I think are being overvalued: Leonard Fournette (@ Texans), Kerryon Johnson (vs. Chargers), Duke Johnson (vs. Jaguars) (FD)
Week 2 DFS Lineups:
FD Cash | FD GPP | DK Cash | DK GPP | Y! Cash | Y! GPP
Week 2 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
Tyrell Williams, Raiders vs. Chiefs (30.1-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 26.6 percent on DraftKings). C’mon down and join your Raiders brethren! Williams is yet another Oakland piece that is getting far too much love after one big game. He’s expected to be the most popular WR on both major sites, and while I think you can certainly make a case for Williams to put up a serviceable stat line, there are far too many other suitable options available at vastly lower ownership to swim with the public on this one. That’s where comparing expected output to ownership is valuable. Sure, Williams should see plenty of looks on what should be a pass-heavy team in Week 2, but his success wouldn’t help to separate you from the pack and the Oakland passing game does not have much of a floor. There are plenty of better options in this price range.
Donte Moncrief, Steelers vs. Seahawks (0.70-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 1.3 percent on DraftKings). This one almost hurts to write up, but Moncrief absolutely had the opportunity in Week 1 (led the team with 10 targets), he just didn’t turn it into anything. He’s still in somewhat of a battle with James Washington for looks behind JuJu Smith-Schuster, but the two are different in a variety of ways. Washington is more of a deep threat while Moncrief profiles as more of a possession receiver. We are projecting Moncrief for about one-percent ownership on both sites, and I think he makes sense as part of a Seahawks-Steelers game stack. That may be the game I end up being the heaviest on. I wouldn’t even remotely approach this situation in cash games, but there is real GPP upside here despite how uncomfortable it may make you to hit submit with Moncrief in your lineup.
Other notable WRs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Will Fuller (vs. Jacksonville), Michael Gallup (@ Redskins), T.Y. Hilton (@ Titans), Stefon Diggs (@ Packers), Deebo Samuel (@ Bengals), Corey Davis (vs. Colts)
Other notable WRs that I think are being overvalued: John Brown (@ Giants), Marquise Brown (vs. Cardinals), Marvin Jones (vs. Chargers) (FD)
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