The streaking New England Patriots, winners of four straight, go for five in a row on “Monday Night Football” when they travel to Buffalo to battle the Bills. Kickoff from New Era Field is at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Patriots, who were 1-2 a month ago, have averaged 39 points over their past four games to take control of the AFC East. This is the Bills’ third home game of the season after they played five of their first seven on the road. The Patriots opened as 13-point favorites and now are laying 14, while the over-under is 44.5 in the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds after dipping as low as 44. Before you make any Bills vs. Patriots picks, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
It went 10-4 straight up in a wild Week 7, including calling the Patriots’ huge win over the Bears, improving its record to a blistering 71-34 on the season. And when it comes to top-rated picks, it is now on a strong 62-43 run. Anybody who has been following those picks is way, way up.
Now, the model has simulated the Patriots vs. Bills on “Monday Night Football” 10,000 times. We can tell you it says the over cashes in 52 percent of simulations, and it has also found plenty of value on one side of the spread. This pick is available only at SportsLine.
The model knows that at 41, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady continues to play at an elite level. He’s on pace to toss 37 touchdowns this season and already has 1,876 passing yards. With running back Sony Michel out with a knee injury, expect James White and Kenjon Barner to handle most of the rushing duties. Not only is White averaging a healthy 4.7 yards per carry, he’s also the team’s leading receiver with 45 catches for 380 yards.
All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski is likely to suit up against the Bills after missing last week’s game with back spasms. Gronk has only one score this season, but is netting an impressive 15.6 yards per grab. Wide receiver Josh Gordon notched his first 100-yard game as a Patriot last Sunday, which included a nifty 55-yard reception.
But just because the Patriots have been hot doesn’t mean they’ll cover a two-touchdown spread in a divisional road game.
A strong ground game capable of keeping the high-flying New England offense off the field and taking pressure off Bills quarterback Derek Anderson will be key to a Buffalo cover. Buffalo’s top two running backs are banged up, but both are expected to play.
LeSean McCoy leads the squad with 244 rushing yards, but has yet to hit pay dirt. He has cleared the concussion protocol after practicing all week. Backup Chris Ivory topped 100 yards from scrimmage last week in the blowout loss to the Colts.
Who wins Patriots vs. Bills? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, all from the incredible computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors.
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