When the Giants (3-6) go to the Buccaneers (6-3) to close Week 11 in the NFL on “Monday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN and ESPN2), they will be looking to keep their fading wild-card hopes alive against the reigning Super Bowl champions.
Daniel Jones and New York are coming off a bye. Tom Brady and Tampa Bay are coming off consecutive losses to New Orleans and Washington sandwiching a bye.
The Giants need a win badly also to improve the future outlook for Jones, coach Joe Judge, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and general manager Dave Gettleman, among others in the organization. The Buccaneers need a win just to re-establish themselves as the team to beat (and repeat) in the NFC.
Here’s everything to know about betting on Giants vs. Buccaneers in Week 11, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for “Monday Night Football.”
Giants vs. Buccaneers odds for Monday Night Football
The Buccaneers, despite recent results and the Giants coming off a win and a bye, have been steady touchdown-plus double-digit favorites all week. Tampa Bay is a dominant home team, with a 4-0 record and an average 22-point margin of victory.
(betting odds per FanDuel Sportsbook)
Giants vs. Buccaneers all-time series
The Giants lead the series 16-8. The Buccaneers won in New York on a Monday night last season, 25-23. Jones got his first career win in Tampa, rallying the Giants to a 32-31 in 2019. The Giants have won two of the past three meetings and have taken seven of nine.
Three trends to know
—79 percent of spread bettors think the number in favor of the Buccaners is too big despite their home play and being night home favorites.
—74 percent of over/under bettors think Brady and Jones will help push the game over its rather high point total.
—The Giants are 6-4 against the spread and 4-6 straight up in their past 10 games. The total has gone over only three times in those games. The Buccaneers are 4-6 ATS and 7-3 SU in their past 10 games with the total going over in half of them.
Three things to watch
How will the Giants be affected by injuries?
The Giants will once again be missing key wide receiver Sterling Shepard (quad). Their top two running backs Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Devontae Booker (hip) have questionable health. Jones needs to dig deep and spread the ball around to his many other weapons to attack a weak Bucs pass defense knowing the game script will need to have him work around a stout Bucs’ run defense.
How will the Buccaneers be affected by injuries?
Speaking of that run defense, it will be softened a little by missing massive tackle Vita Vea (knee). The secondary is already injury-riddled and offensively, wide receiver Antonio Brown (ankle) will miss another game and tight end Rob Gronkowski (back) is a game-time decision. The defense does tend to play much better at home and Brady still has plenty of weapons, led by wideouts Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The Bucs have proved to be deep; the Giants are not.
How Brady gets his groove his back
Brady is still in the MVP mix despite his mini slump of multiple-interception games. Keep in mind that he didn’t get red-hot in the Bucs’ offense until November and December last season. He always seems to have an answer to fix himself as everyone wants to write him off at age 44. He will be motivated to rip the defense of his former Patriots special teams coach Judge, five years his junior.
Stat that matters
120.6. That’s Brady’s passer rating in four home games this season, all wins. He’s thrown for 18 TDs to only 2 INTs in those games with 7.8 yards per attempt. He’s also averaged 319 yards passing in Tampa. Expect the GOAT to play like a QB possessed to carry his team again.
Giants vs. Buccaneers prediction
The Buccaneers can make a statement under the lights to tell the rest of the league they’re ready to take back control of the Super Bowl race. Look for Brady to come out firing and put the game out of reach as quickly as possible, putting Jones into high-passing garbage time. Leonard Fournette and the running game will grind things away late while the defense again becomes active and emotional making big plays of its own.
Buccaneers 38, Giants 17
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