Over the last two decades, we’ve seen dozens of big-time college football games held on the blue turf at Albertsons Stadium while Boise State has established itself as one of the premier Group of Five programs. On Friday night, they host No. 16 Fresno State in a highly-anticipated Mountain West game. With Boise State at 4-1 in the MWC, Fresno State at 5-0, and both teams still in control of their own destinies, this could be a preview of the conference championship. The Bulldogs are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Fresno State vs. Boise State odds, the same as where the line opened. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 53.5, down a half-point from where it opened. Before you make any Fresno State vs. Boise State picks and predictions, you’ll want to check out what the advanced computer model at SportsLine has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks.
And in Week 10, it absolutely nailed the biggest game of the season, recommending the Crimson Tide against the spread (-14), on the money line (-588) and hitting the under in Alabama’s 29-0 blowout of LSU. It also nailed its top-rated selection of Auburn (-3.5) over Texas A&M, helping the model finish the weekend on a strong 7-3 run on all top-rated picks. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has run its simulations and crunched the numbers for Fresno State vs. Boise State and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning over, but it has also locked in a strong point-spread selection that hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows Fresno State is on a roll with wins and covers in its past seven games. In fact, its 8-1 record against the spread and has made it one of the most attractive plays of the 2018 college football season.
One big reason why the Bulldogs have been so dominant this season is quarterback Marcus McMaryion. The Oregon State transfer is now a two-year starter for Jeff Tedford and has been sensational. McMaryion has completed nearly 71 percent of his passes for 2,416 yards and 20 touchdowns against just three interceptions this season. He’s also rushed for 157 yards and seven more scores.
Last year in Fresno State’s regular-season matchup against Boise State, McMaryion put together one of his most memorable performances by throwing for 336 yards and two touchdowns with no picks. That included an absolute dime on an 81-yard fourth-quarter touchdown to KeeShawn Johnson to seal the game.
However, it has been a while since Fresno State has been challenged by an opponent of Boise State’s caliber, so a cover on the road is no guarantee.
Boise State has built itself to compete in games where it looks like it might be out-manned. Quarterback Brett Rypien has played in plenty of marquee games as a four-year starter and is having his best statistical season to date. Rypien has six games under his belt this season where he has thrown for over 300 yards, at least two touchdowns and no interceptions. In those games, Boise State is 5-1.
He’s also 17-4 now in his career on the blue turf in Boise, so he might find a little extra motivation in being a home underdog for the first time in his career.
So, which side of the Fresno State vs. Boise State spread cashes in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has returned over $4,000 in profit for $100 bettors.
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