College football odds, picks, lines for Week 10: Advanced computer model loving Kentucky, Penn State
Marquee games like No. 1 Alabama (-14) vs. No. 4 LSU, No. 5 Michigan (-12) vs. No. 14 Penn State, and No. 6 Georgia (-8.5) vs. No. 11 Kentucky have dominated the headlines this week, but bettors are analyzing all the Week 10 college football odds looking for value. Oregon opened as a 13-point favorite over UCLA, but is now laying 10 in Chip Kelly’s return to Autzen Stadium. There’s also been substantial line movement for No. 3 Notre Dame’s trip to Northwestern, as the Irish are now favored by 10, up three from the opening line. With college football odds and lines moving multiple points, be sure to check out the Week 10 college football picks and predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks.
The model made some huge calls in Week 9, including nailing Oklahoma State’s outright upset of No. 6 Texas. It also was all over Georgia (-6.5) covering against Florida and recommended California (+12) against Washington, as well as Kentucky (+7) against Missouri. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now it has simulated every single play of Week 10 and its college football picks are in. One of the Week 10 college football picks the model is recommending: No. 11 Kentucky covers as an 8.5-point home underdog against No. 6 Georgia.
There’s a lot riding on this matchup, with the winner clinching the SEC East. The model is calling for Georgia to get the victory, but with a spread approaching double-digits, there’s significant value on the Wildcats in what should be a tight battle.
Kentucky’s defense has been its strength this season, coming into Saturday ranked second in the conference. It held a normally high-powered Missouri offense to just 14 points last week, and the model says the Wildcats will limit Georgia’s vaunted rushing attack to around 150 yards Saturday, helping the Wildcats cover in 54 percent of simulations .
Another one of the top Week 10 college football picks the model loves: No. 14 Penn State (+12) covers with plenty of room to spare against No. 5 Michigan.
Oddsmakers are giving the Wolverines a big edge as they look to continue their march towards a possible bid in the College Football Playoff. They’re the last team out heading into Week 10, but with Alabama and LSU meeting up on Saturday as well, they’ll have a strong chance to be in the top four of the College Football Playoff Rankings next week with a victory over the Nittany Lions.
Even though Penn State has dropped two of its last four in Big Ten play, nobody has been able to blow the Nittany Lions out. Their two losses came by a combined four points, and the model sees a much closer game than the spread indicates. PSU quarterback Trace McSorley throws for almost 200 yards, according to the model, as the Nittany Lions cover in 65 percent of simulations. The Under (53.5) hits almost 60 percent of the time as well.
The model also has an extremely strong pick for the showdown between No. 1 Alabama and No. 4 LSU, saying one side hits against the spread in almost 60 percent of simulations, and is calling for a Top 25 team to get stunned on the road by a huge underdog in an upset that will shake up conference standings forever.
So what college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 10? And what contender gets stunned by a huge underdog? Check out the latest Week 10 college football odds below, and then visit SportsLine to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $4,000 in profit over the past three seasons.
Nebraska at Ohio State (-19, 73.5)
Michigan State at Maryland (+3, 45)
Texas A&M at Auburn (-3.5, 48)
Louisville at Clemson (-38.5, 61)
South Carolina at Ole Miss (PK, 69)
Iowa at Purdue (-2.5, 51)
Georgia at Kentucky (+8.5, 44.5)
Florida State at NC State (-9, 52.5)
West Virginia at Texas (-2, 58)
Tulane at South Florida (-6, 61)
Boston College at Virginia Tech (+2, 57)
Penn State at Michigan (-12, 53.5)
Missouri at Florida (-6.5, 57.5)
Utah at Arizona State (+8.5, 55.5)
Duke at Miami (-8.5, 50.5)
Notre Dame at Northwestern (+10.5, 53.5)
UCLA at Oregon (-10.5, 63)
Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State (-23.5, 48.5)
Oklahoma at Texas Tech (+13.5, 78)
Alabama at LSU (+14, 52.5)
Stanford at Washington (-10.5, 45.5)
California at Washington State (-9, 50)
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