Alabama vs. LSU odds, line: 2018 college football picks, predictions from model that called Texas’ upset

In a game that will send shockwaves through the College Football Playoff rankings, No. 1 Alabama travels to Baton Rouge to take on No. 4 LSU on Saturday. The 8 p.m. ET kickoff will be televised live on CBS. Alabama is undefeated and a 14.5-point favorite, with a total of 54 in the latest Alabama vs. LSU odds. Alabama has won the past seven meetings, but LSU had taken seven of the previous nine before that. Before you make your Alabama vs. LSU picks and predictions, you’ll need to check out what the advanced computer at SportsLine has to say about the action.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks.

The model made some huge calls in Week 9, including nailing Oklahoma State’s outright upset of No. 6 Texas. It also was all over Georgia (-6.5) covering against Florida, and recommended California (+12) against Washington, as well as Kentucky (+7) against Missouri. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has simulated every possible play for Alabama vs. LSU 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning towards the Under, and it has also locked in a strong against the spread pick that hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model knows that in this game, the formula for LSU is relatively clear: Just as the Tigers have all year, they have to win the turnover battle and use their defense to create premium scoring opportunities.

LSU quarterback Joe Burrow only has a 118.2 quarterback rating, but he’s still helped the team by not turning the ball over. In fact, he’s thrown just three interceptions all season. Combine that ball security with a dynamic defense and LSU is +12 in turnover differential. That was on full display in the last major test for the Tigers, when they turned Georgia over four times and committed none of their own on their way to a dominating 36-16 win.

However, that’s easier said than done against Alabama, and a cover is no guarantee.

The Crimson Tide’s offense is as good as it has ever been under coach Nick Saban, and Tua Tagovailoa is looking like far and away the best quarterback Saban has ever had. The runaway favorite for the Heisman Trophy has turned Alabama into the top-scoring unit in the nation, and even LSU’s heralded defense (seventh nationally in points allowed) will have problems keeping Alabama’s offense bottled up.

Tagovailoa averages 13.6 yards per passing attempt and has hit on big play after big play thanks to the Crimson Tide’s rushing attack setting up easy play-action opportunities.

So which side of the Alabama vs. LSU spread cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Alabama vs. LSU you need to jump on, all from the model that has returned over $4,000 in profit for $100 bettors.

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